On 3 October 1993, the United States sent soldiers into Mogadishu, Somalia, to capture two senior lieutenants of warlord Mohamed Farrah Aidid. It was supposed to be a quick get in, get out mission.
The Americans for sure had superior weapons and training. They also had confidence that the mission would be relatively straightforward. After all, they were Goliath, standing tall before a pint-sized David they had grossly underestimated.
Then two Black Hawk helicopters were shot down.
What followed became one of the most intense urban battles in modern military history. A mission that was expected to take less than an hour turned into an overnight battle in the streets of Mogadishu.
The lesson for the marketer here, is not about war. It is about assumptions.
You can have the biggest budget, the best product, the strongest marketing team and the most sophisticated campaign by the best ad agency in the world. None of that matters if you do not understand the market you are entering.
Ask Walmart.
When Walmart entered Germany, it arrived with a retail model that had worked extremely well in America. But Germany was not America. Walmart faced established competitors in a whole different retail environment with consumer expectations that did not align with its American way of doing business. The company eventually exited Germany in 2006.
The problem was not that Walmart did not know how to run supermarkets. They surely did. The problem was that Walmart knew how to run Walmart. I don’t even know if I am making sense, but that was the problem. They were so accustomed to what worked for them that they failed to adapt to the realities of a new market.
This is where market intelligence becomes important.
Before launching a product, entering a new territory or taking on a competitor, you need to understand the battlefield. Who are the customers? What do they value? How do they buy? What are competitors doing? What cultural, economic or regulatory factors could change the outcome?
And perhaps most importantly, what are you assuming that may not be true?
The problem is that many companies collect information without turning it into intelligence.
For example. If your data shows that sales are falling. That is just information. But if you dig deeper and find out that customers are moving to a competitor because their product is easier to find, that is intelligence.
As always, good marketing starts with knowing the battlefield.
Never underestimate a competitor. Never assume what worked somewhere else will automatically work in a new market.
If you misunderstand the environment and enter a new market with misinformed assumptions, you will eventually have your own Black Hawk Down moment.
